TAMPA, March 31, 2012—In their mad dash to create the long awaited general election narrative, media outlets have pronounced Ron Paul’s campaign dead.
They now speculate about what his supporters may do when he drops out. The Associated Press reports that Romney has over ten times the delegates that Ron Paul has secured. Reuters reports that Paul is far behind in Wisconsin and that his supporters have finally conceded that he can’t win the nomination.
None of this is true. Romney has not secured 568 delegates. Hundreds of those delegates won’t be determined until Republican state conventions, many of which haven’t happened yet.
As I’ve reported before, there is very credible evidence that Ron Paul will emerge from those conventions with the majority of delegates in many states. Texas, New York and California haven’t even held their primaries yet. Those three states alone control over four hundred delegates.
In many states, there is no cause-effect relationship between the popular vote and the delegates awarded to each candidate. Delegates are awarded via a completely separate process that doesn’t utilize the popular vote totals in any way. The purpose of the popular vote is to inform the eventual delegates of the preferences of voters in their states. That’s why many of those states allow Democrats and independents to vote. They want the delegates to know who those voters prefer. That tells them who has the best chance to win in the general election.
In most years, the media can get away with reporting on the nomination contest as they are now. They can assume that the candidates will receive roughly the same percentage of delegates from each state as the percentage they received in the popular vote. That isn’t accurate reporting, but it usually comes out in the wash, especially as far as the winner is concerned. However, there are many things different in this year’s race and there is a good chance that much of the media are going to look silly come August.
First, Mitt Romney is probably the weakest Republican “frontrunner” in several decades. Remember, Republicans weren’t exactly energized by John McCain and he soundly defeated Romney four years ago.
Romney’s campaign has been able to get supporters to take fifteen minutes to stop at a polling place and pull a lever, but it’s much more difficult to get them to participate in a delegate process that takes months to complete.
Ron Paul’s supporters are completely the opposite. While he has not pulled off a “beauty contest” win, his supporters are willing to walk through fire to see him become president. They have learned Robert’s Rules of Order, stayed behind after caucus popular votes, and taken over the delegations in many counties in caucus states.
The Iowa Republican Party has confirmed that Paul and Santorum are in a dead heat for the state’s delegates and that Paul may win the majority. That bears no resemblance to the popular vote in Iowa’s caucus, where Santorum narrowly defeated Romney and Paul came in third.
The devotion of Paul’s supporters isn’t only a factor in the caucus states. In those states where the popular vote does bind the delegates to the winner, there is still an important question. Who are those delegates? Do they truly support the winner of the primary vote? Or are they Paul supporters?
There is no reason to believe that Paul is not well represented among delegates in those states as well. Their delegates are obligated to vote for the winner of the primary during the first round of voting at the RNC. However, if no candidate gets 1,144 votes, even they are now unbound and can vote for any candidate on the second ballot.
If it becomes necessary, that vote could be very interesting.
The media started this election cycle by completely ignoring Ron Paul’s campaign. As his poll numbers rose and the crowds at his rallies grew into the thousands, they began giving him grudging respect. Now, they want to pronounce his campaign over and even go so far as to speak for his supporters.
There’s only one problem. Paul and his supporters aren’t going anywhere and this race is far from over. The Paul campaign’s senior advisor Doug Wead documents many examples of Ron Paul’s delegate strategy yielding much better results than the media are reporting. Assuming he’s right, Romney is unlikely to clinch the nomination during the first vote at the national convention. If he doesn’t, Paul’s understated army of delegates could mean big surprises in Tampa.
Tom Mullen is the author of A Return to Common Sense: Reawakening Liberty in the Inhabitants of America
Last night 1,800 people packed inside a building in Maryland while 200 people lined up outside. All to see Dr. Ron Paul. Tonight, more than 5,200 people stood outside in 40 degree weather to hear Dr. Paul speak. This beats his previous record and is now the largest Town Hall meeting Dr. Paul has had to date!
Ron Paul supporters are enthusiastic, dedicated, and motivated. Many politicians have attempted to wrestle control of Ron Paul supporters by floating rumors regarding secret deals and back room meetings. These politicians do not seem to realize that this is a movement and is about more than just one man.
I was sent the following email on March 29, 2012 at 9:21 pm:
LAKE JACKSON, Texas – 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul attracted an amazing more than 5,200 supporters and undecided voters to a college campus town hall meeting in Wisconsin, breaking his record of drawing large crowds to campaign events.
The 12-term Congressman from Texas’ campus town hall meeting took place at 7:00 p.m. CST outdoors on the Memorial Union Terrace – Waterfront, located at 800 Langdon Street, Madison, WI 53706. Event organizers noted that the thousands of event attendees braved a brisk 40-degree breeze emanating from nearby lakes Mendota and Monona.
At the event, Dr. Paul spoke to an admiring crowd about the need for constitutionally-limited government, the enduring ties between civil and economic liberties, and key elements of his ‘Plan to Restore America,’ an oft-praised economic blueprint designed to reverse the rapid growth in government, spending, and borrowing that threatens prosperity and freedom.
Just yesterday, Dr. Paul drew a crowd of more than 2,000 people to his University of Maryland – College Park town hall meeting held inside Ritchie Coliseum.Delaware Elections 2010 Examiner
While Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum duke it out for delegates in high-profile primaries like Illinois and Pennsylvania, Ron Paul’s quiet pursuit of delegates appears to be paying off.
Early results from Missouri’s caucuses this weekend show that the long-shot libertarian candidate is significantly outperforming his rivals in the race for delegates. Senior campaign advisors tell Business Insider that Paul appears to have picked up the majority of Missouri’s delegates, despite having lost the state’s nonbinding primary to Rick Santorum.
“We did do real well in Missouri,” Benton said. “Some county conventions are still going on, but we’ve got good turnout. Anecdotal evidence shows we won multiple caucuses, and it looks like we’re going to pick up the majority of delegates.”
Although the final delegate tally won’t be determined until the state party convention this spring, Paul’s success in Missouri is a validation of his low-key caucus strategy. The Paul campaign has recently shifted its focus to winning unbound delegates in caucus states, where delegates are elected at state conventions rather than by the popular vote.
In Missouri, Paul’s robust and aggressive organization has filled a void left by Santorum’s lackluster operation. As in Iowa, Maine, and other states, Paul organizers have taken advantage of caucus chaos to stage legitimate takeovers of several county contests. In St. Charles County, outside St. Louis, the crowd was so unruly that party leaders were forced to shut down the caucus before delegates were elected, and two Paul supporters were arrested.
The Santorum campaign has offered a counter-narrative about Missouri. On a conference call with reporters today, senior campaign strategist John Yob told reporters that they anticipate Santorum will win a majority of delegates in the Show Me State.
But reports from the caucuses indicate that the Santorum campaign was completely outmaneuvered by the Paul campaign. Although the former Pennsylvania Senator has gained momentum in recent weeks, his campaign lags far behind his rivals in terms of organization.
“Rick Santorum will never be able to catch up,” Benton told BI. “He’s been scrambling to try, but he had poor organization to begin with. He does have some party insiders and establishment people who have been lending him their organizations, but he doesn’t have one.”
The Paul campaign’s internal count has Santorum in third place, Benton added.
“His consultants should stop misleading him,” he told Business Insider. “They are destroying his credibility.”
In Greene County, for example, Santorum received just six of the delegates despite having the support of nearly half of the county’s deeply conservative Republican voters. In Boone County, Paul supporters managed to shut out Santorum entirely.
Yob blamed those losses on an alliance between Paul and Romney supporters, echoing Santorum’s past assertions that his two rivals are conspiring to lock him out of the race.
Benton conceded that state organizers did work with the Romney camp to push through a slate of delegate in several Missouri counties. But he said that there were other counties where Paul supporters worked with the Santorum campaign, as well as ones where Romney and Santorum worked together to shut out Paul.
My 2 cents, if our country doesn’t change course there will not be any Department of anything, no food stamps, no welfare for anyone. We could raise the income tax rate to 100% and we still couldn’t pay off our government’s debt. We need a drastic change in course or no one will get any government benefits. The only way, the only way, we can pay off the interest and principle of our debt is to massively inflate our currency which will lead to the destruction of the middle class and our country. This is serious friends. Ron Paul is the only honest candidate, do you ever hear the media rant about him returning a portion of his congressional budget back to the US Treasury every year he was a congressman? Have you ever heard that Paul was the Pennsylvania 200 yard dash state champion? That he actually served in the military? These characteristics would be spoon fed all over the media for any other candidate. Do you ever hear about how he, as a medical doctor never accepted medicare or medicaid and instead worked for free for the disadvantaged? No, the media and his own party has an agenda against him, why is that? Ask your self; I’ll let you draw your conclusion because to me and a great many others it is obvious.
It is amazing Ron Paul has been able to do what has done with zero obsession from the media. They gave Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and every other candidate countless hours of free press worth hundreds of millions, yet Ron Paul has what no other candidate has, unpaid grassroot individuals who sincerely believe in his message and are willing to give up their free time to fight for what is right in the face of organized oppression.